 |
| Nigeria’s Inflation Expected to Decrease by End of 2024 – Report |
According to leading financial services group Norrenberger, Nigeria's inflation is projected to decline by the end of 2024 as both monetary and fiscal authorities ramp up their efforts.
The Norrenberger Economic Outlook (NEO), titled “Nigeria: Beyond the Reforms,” was released virtually on Thursday. It also forecasts a GDP growth rate of 3.1% by the end of the year.
Presenting the report, Pabina Yinkere, Business Head of Norrenberger Assets Management, stated, “Inflation remains a significant challenge for the country, driven primarily by factors such as COVID-19, the Russia-Ukraine war, infrastructure deficits, high energy costs, uneven purchasing power, and the removal of fuel subsidies.”
Yinkere added, “We project that inflation will moderate to 32.26% by the end of the year, while GDP growth is expected to stabilize at 3.1%.”
In a worst-case scenario, the exchange rate could reach N2,000 to $1, while in a best-case scenario, it could be N1,100 to $1.
The report outlines the drivers of these assumptions, noting that the worst-case scenario could be triggered by “increased global tensions, further hikes in electricity tariffs, a drop in crude oil production below 1.2 million barrels per day, and a dovish Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) policy.” Conversely, the best-case scenario could occur if “oil production exceeds 1.5 million barrels per day and the Dangote Refinery becomes fully operational, boosting supply and economic activities.”
The report also highlighted that the sectors most affected by exchange rate instability and interest rate hikes are the largest contributors to the economy.
Tony Edeh, CEO of Norrenberger, noted that the outlook was complemented by a panel session featuring seasoned financial experts who shared their perspectives and current challenges, offering clear recommendations for economic growth and development.
